Predicting Breyerfest SR Variations

The time is quickly approaching to make our Breyerfest Special Run preference selections, so I have been thinking quite a bit about my selection strategy. So far I have been mostly focused on which of my favorite models are more likely to sell out or be harder to get, to make sure I don't miss out on them altogether. With that out of the way, I've started to think also about which models this year are likely to have variations.

It has been pretty consistent now for years that there is a matte/glossy split, a hairdo split, and a color split. These have typically been 50/50 splits or at most 65/35 as was the case last year with the matte/glossy and color variation. Last year I was 100% wrong with my guesses on the splits (I think Breyer was a little sneaky!) but I'm going to try to predict again anyway while also expecting some curveballs.

The hair split seems the easiest to guess. The two molds that we know have different hair options available are the Show Jumping Warmblood and the new Criollo stallion. I am guessing it's going to be the Warmblood - mostly because I do not like the roached mane version of the Criollo, even though I know it is very correct. The only reason I want to get him is because of the new mane soooo.... I'm really hoping he's not the hair split. The Show Jumper on the other hand I do like both mold options and might even want to get one of each.

What could be the curveball here. How about Brishen - what if half of them are actually Laredo!? That would be a twist. They could also throw us a repeat of last year and maybe the mare and foal have a secret mane/tail swap option that nobody knows about. I think both of those are unlikely but I've been surprised before.

The pattern split also seems straightforward - if history repeats itself they do not choose a solid color or a decorator so the options here would be the Old Timer, Croi, or again the Warmblood. If I remember correctly it has always been a pinto pattern in the past, so my guess is it will be the Croi. The Old Timer is a strong possibility here too.

Some unexpected options could be that they choose a solid to come in two different colors, or maybe the throw a pattern on a solid as the split! Maybe they do split the deco and half of them are Gold Charm instead of Wedgewood or something like that. I would say maybe they do something fun and put him in all four classic deco colors, but the resist dapple ones are unlikely to work well with the silhouette pattern.

The gloss split is the hardest to call. It could be literally any of them. It's unlikely to be the dog or the decorator given historical trends, but it could be any other one. They threw us a sneaky one last year by having the split on a model that they previewed as glossy! Might they do that again with the Show Jumper or the Mare & Foal? I personally don't think they'll do that two years in a row, so I've narrowed it down to the Criollo, Brishen, Old Timer, or Croi. I could make a case for any of them. I'm going to pick Brishen. Last year only one model that was available online had one of the splits, and I've already chosen the Croi to be the color split, so that is my one and very tenuous tipping factor. I also think the Criollo or Old Timer are strong contenders here.

What do you think the splits will be?

And then there is the possibility of small run or micro run variations. They sort of teased this last year and they love to throw in surprises for an anniversary year - this time it's a Breyer anniversary rather than a Breyerfest anniversary, but 75 is a big one and I personally think they might go all out again, with a variation for every Special Run. My gut says they will keep with prior tradition and they will be runs of 75 pieces. I much prefer when it's more like 200-250 because they are still rare and special but not SO rare that you can't get one on the secondary market (for less than several thousand dollars). So I'm hoping for that but planning for runs of 75.

If they also keep with the theme of using the anniversary gift (silver, pearl, etc) - will these be "diamond" and does that mean they might look like Radiance?! I would lose my sh...irt. Clearware and colorshift are my weaknesses. The saving grace this year is that I only conga the Show Jumping WB and Old Timer of this year's molds (I was a little panicked last year because I collected ALL but one of them) so while I'm sure I will love the micro or small run variations on the other SRs, I will survive without them, ha.

Interestingly in some of the recent years where they did the larger (but still small) run variations, the models that had the traditional splits (gloss, mane and tail, color) did NOT get additional variations. I'm not going to count on that this year though - better to plan for the possibility that every special run has a variation.

So where does that leave me. Well I know I will probably want to try for an extra or two of my favs - the Old Timer and Show Jumper. I'd like to get one of the mare & foal set (please be all glossy) and one of the Criollo (please be all full mane!). I'd like to get a surprise or two, just in case it is something I conga. I'm less worried about them given how many they make these days and even the matte/gloss split has been very obtainable. BUT it's a hedge in case this is the year they decide to add more options and make each one super limited again. I don't collect Croi or Brishen or other animals so I am trying to talk myself out of FOMOing those three - but I can already feel it creeping in 😆

The real wild card for me is the Silver. I still just don't love the silhouette patterns that are the theme for the 75th anniversary. However the collectibility nerd in me does appreciate them as that - a unique pattern that was made for this anniversary. I do find that compelling. And I heard an interesting story about how they were able to better achieve the true wedgewood color this year - and it is very nice. So, given all that I wouldn't mind having one. But what IF there is an amazing micro run on Silver. What IF it's interference paint clearware. I would really really really love to have that. But SILVER of all the molds is one that commands very high dollar prices on the secondary market, particularly for small runs. I would really have to try to get one first hand. So do I put in for a bunch of Silver even though I don't even really love the main run all that much?! This is my primary conundrum at the moment.

He's also interesting in that he appears to be the least popular of the online options - so if I go total FOMO and buy an extra online ticket after June 4 there's a good chance the random assignment would be him - and honestly any of the random assignment online SRs would be fine by me - so that might happen. Or there could be leftovers in the leftover sale. They aren't likely to be in the in person leftovers, since they will be held for online tickets, but there could be a chance to snag one or two (I made sure to buy tickets on different accounts, in case it's one per) in a leftover sale, once we know if there is a cool variation. Of course if there IS a cool variation, they will also go quickly.

I was able to get my Indian Pony last year in the second chance sale - so my wildcard fiasco wasn't a complete failure. But I do still need to find a Fighter and Survivor. And that's the other thing - with the prices having gone up and with the relative popularity of certain models I do think there will be models available in both the on site and online second chance sales. I wouldn't count on the Old Timer though, I think he will be the one to sell out this year.