New Club Grab Bags - An Analysis

The vintage club and premier club ones have already sold out, so this is mostly academic, but I love the chance to run a value analysis!

TLDR; Premier Club: NO. Stablemates Club: Maybe. Vintage Club: YES.

Yesterday Breyer released the annual club grab bags exclusively to current club members - so if you're in the Premier Club you could buy a Premier bag, etc. They are not discounted at all so they come at the cost of a current club horse, but if you're new to the club it's an opportunity to purchase an older release.

But is it worth it?

To a certain extent, that is a matter of taste and opinion - but I like to look at it from a numbers perspective with only a small amount of opinion layered in. 😉 Philosophically I like to participate in a grab bag gamble if I have a decent chance of getting something I want that I can't go out and buy for the same price (or less). Ideally it's even at a bit of a discount because I'm willing to pay a bit more to pick out exactly the model I want (condition, shading, masking etc etc) on the secondary market. The risk is getting something you don't want but hopefully something you could still sell and not take an immediate hit on.

Let's start with the Premier Club offering.

This grab bag was $195 + $20 for tax and shipping (ymmv) and could include a model from 2018-2023. I would postulate that the odds are not evenly split among those 18 possible models. As far as what is likely to still be leftover, it is more likely to be the third release of the year, then the second, then the first. While they likely make extras of every model, as the year goes on more people will drop out of the club and not purchase the later models. We've seen this play out in the past and we know in particular they've had leftover Emerson, Georg, and Troubador in the warehouse and collector club sales. I'd also guess you're more likely to get a more recent model, since they have already had some of those sales and might not have as much left from older years.

But all things being equal your best case scenario: Bristol (average sales price $583) or Fireheart (average sales price $385) with Vermeer or Hamilton also nice options that sell for over $300

Worse case scenario: Zafirah (average sales price $92) or Constantia (average sales price $107)

Overall in 9 out of 18 cases (50% if equal probability) you would stand to lose money if you needed to immediately sell your model. If you skew towards more recent years and 3rd releases, that probability goes up quite a bit more. In fact, other than the four best case models, the ones that sell above $195 are not far above that, so you could likely go out and buy one today that you know you like for only a small premium. Lastly, I would say the odds of getting Bristol or Fireheart are likely the lowest among all the options (both being popular first releases in their years).

Overall Impression: Not a good deal

Here's the full chart

Year	Name	Value	Difference
2018	Bristol	583	388.00
2018	Dundee	280	85.00
2018	Emerson	185	(10.00)
2019	Rhian and Cadell	280	85.00
2019	Hamilton	314	119.00
2019	Georg	235	40.00
2020	Altynai	212	17.00
2020	Vermeer	331	136.00
2020	Troubadour	153	(42.00)
2021	Fireheart	385	190.00
2021	Astrid	150	(45.00)
2021	Firefly and Hawkeye	148	(47.00)
2022	Zafirah	93	(102.00)
2022	Constantia	107	(88.00)
2022	Anamar	132	(63.00)
2023	Cancion	154	(41.00)
2023	Adonis	188	(7.00)
2023	Rhiannon & Rhemi	285	90.00

Now let's look at the Vintage Club offering.

This grab bag was $160 + $20 for tax and shipping (ymmv) and could include a model from 2019-2023. When it comes to value, there are two important differences between the Premier Club and the Vintage Club. The first is that it is limited, so for these years these models only had either 500 or 750 made. In addition to that, the Vintage Club has a gambler's choice option every year and even sometimes a micro-run, making each those models even more limited and often quite valuable. The possibility of getting one of those models makes a big difference in my view and willingness to take a gamble.

Best case scenario: For instance, you could get a Zahra (avg value $850) or Nugget (avg value $650) and if you were even more lucky and got the most popular color they could go for well over the average.

Worse case scenario: Go Figure (avg $72) or Sandman (avg $95) would be the low end, but even those are less of an immediate "loss" than the worst PC options.

Overall 12 out of the 25 options would result in a net loss or 48%, very similar to the PC, and also similarly if you skew your probabilities towards newer models that gets worse (2022 and 2023 weren't super popular) but on the other hand the later releases in VC include the gamblers and often the more popular models, so that could offset a bit. The main draw here is that you do actually have a shot at some real rarities here and even the non-gamblers are still reasonably limited. There are 10 possibilities that are valued at over $200 (40%)

Overall Impression: Worth the buy

Year	Name	Value	Difference
2019	Rockford	111	(49.00)
2019	Leopold	175	15.00
2019	Bernadette	400	240.00
2019	Lillian and Molly	161	1.00
2019	Claude	300	140.00
2020	Trailblazer	213	53.00
2020	Starlight	130	(30.00)
2020	Josiah	150	(10.00)
2020	Zahra	850	690.00
2020	Barrington	108	(52.00)
2021	Julius	226	66.00
2021	Nonoma	227	67.00
2021	Nugget	650	490.00
2021	Dusk and Dawn	225	65.00
2021	TB Champion	110	(50.00)
2022	Cooper	124	(36.00)
2022	Sandman	95	(65.00)
2022	Gawain	157	(3.00)
2022	Poppie an Ollie	185	25.00
2022	Woodstock	150	(10.00)
2023	Go Figure	72	(88.00)
2023	Secretariat	95	(65.00)
2023	Rustler	117	(43.00)
2023	Thunderbird	388	228.00
2023	Tuxedo	218	58.00

Lastly, what about the Stablemate Club offering.

This grab bag is $55 + $20 tax and shipping (ish) and you get TWO models from 2018-2024. This one is also still available for purchase as of this writing. Oooof the shipping does hurt a little in this case. I ignored it to a certain extent for the PC and VC because if you buy one off eBay or elsewhere you're probably paying similar for shipping. But for a SM or two it would likely be much less than $20. So I do factor that in, especially since it is such a large percentage of the cost too. On the positive side, the SM club also has gamblers choice models and optional models that are also often well above the $30 value. You also get two, and my recollection from years past is that they would typically try to pair a "meh" model with a gamblers or otherwise popular model. I have done this grab bag in the past and been pleased. No guarantee it will be like that, of course.

Best case scenario: The gamblers are pretty appealing here too - you could get Iris ($98) or Valerio ($116) or Virkie ($90). The other gamblers are a little lower on average because they have a less popular option, but you could also get lucky with, for example, a copenhagen Miguel ($100+)

Worse case scenario: Lanin or Dylan are coming in at just $12 each and there are a few others at $14-$15 like Phineas, Brighton, and Wallowa. It would be a bummer to get two of these.

Overall 21 out of 46 possibilities would result in a net loss (46%) and more if you include shipping (27 or 58%) - but that's for 1 model so your odds of getting both at a loss aren't quite as bad. I'm not going to post the whole list for this set because it's long but also because the vast majority of the SM club models are generally selling within range of cost so you're not out much (or making a huge gain) depending on what you get.

Overall Impression: It's a maybe. If there are enough of the 46 that you'd be happy to receive, plus the chance at a gambler's choice, it's worth it.