Monday Markets: May 5 2025

Here we are on the first Monday of May and it was definitely an interesting week in the model horse markets!

Of course the main item we've been tracking this year is the tariff situation and this week we have seen the first real impact to new model prices. May 1st was the date Breyer planned to increase prices for dealers as well as the MAAP. They were able to (so far) keep it from being a huge hike in retail prices, but we saw a $3-$5 increase in most retail prices on current Breyer regular runs. This equates to roughly 6-10% on most models, far from the 145% tariff on Chinese imports, and I think we are all hoping that comes back down to something closer to that 10% level. There was chatter in the broader news media last week that talks were underway, but the president also made his widely circulated statement that maybe at Christmas the kids will only be able to get 2 dolls instead of 30. I imagine that resonated with many of us collectors who, replacing "dolls" with "horses", will be looking to scale back our new purchases if prices hike to the level of the tariffs.

The largest price increases came on Cloud, Riptide, and Emma and my best guess is that is because a portion of the sales proceeds on all of these models are donated to charity so there is less room for the company to absorb the tariff. These three were all up 17%+. Although interestingly while Riptide went up from $49.99 to $59.99 on the Breyer website (where incidentally he is also out of stock until June) over on Amazon he went down from $49 last week to $46.32 today and that makes him my buy of the week. I was personally going to wait to handpick one at Breyerfest, and I still would like to, but with the potentially looming supply chain slowdowns again I am starting to wonder if there will be many to choose from. We may be looking at a relatively empty Breyer store this year similar to 2022. At least when it comes to new 2025 releases.

Over on eBay there were also some pretty cool things this week.

The auction generating the most buzz was this test color grey deer family! They are so so cool and it is nice to see non-horses generating this much interest. They look 100% authentic and the Chicago location adds some good provenance to them - since the Breyer factory was located in Chicago prior to the Reeves acquisition it's a hotbed for tests and oddities. Also this is not the first time a grey deer has popped up.

This one also popped up on eBay some years ago and I saved him in my "notable models" file. I wish Pinterest showed the dates added, and I wasn't as thorough in my record keeping back then, but it was probably 10+ years ago.

There were not one but TWO woodgrain Morgans that sold this week! The stretch Morgan is one of the absolute rarest of the vintage woodgrains and you just never see one for sale, nevermind two. They actually went for quite a bit less than I expected and I don't know if that is a sign of the market or just an unfortunate consequence of them being listed so close together. They had some condition issues, particularly the milkiness on the first one that is common to many vintage woodgrains, but still they are so so rare. He does happen to be on my collecting goals list for this year but the timing was bad for me too given all the other amazing grails I've snagged YTD but I may come to regret not grabbing one of these.

I loved this vintage Old Timer with his box and large blue ribbon - this checks all my boxes - Old Timer, large sticker, perfect vintage box, excellent condition! He was an excellent buy with this BIN.

This color-shift Peanutine Brighty also was surprisingly low - $750 is the lowest he has been on eBay, down from a high of $1200 in 2023. The next most recent sale was $900 at the end of 2024. It looks like we are well in to that time period before Breyerfest when people are saving, plus with consumer confidence and spending low and prices in the outside world ticking up, where the secondary market is also low and could well continue to trend lower. I've learned over the years that now is a good time to buy if you see something you want and it's in your price range. I used to also save and wait for Breyerfest, then many a year I didn't find the same models or they were priced much higher, and then prices are usually back up after BF during the hype time and I have had REGERTS.

Although funny enough the normal brown version has been UP and the most recent sale for him was $250 a couple of weeks ago, go figure. That feels high to me for a run of 1800 but Brighty is a perpetually super popular model and it is an especially nice color on him.

Another popular vintage Breyerfest SR that's up is Caves of Lascaux - this one sold for $835 when prior sales had been hovering around $600ish. First of all, I can't believe this SR is 10 years old this year - that year still feels like yesterday. He WAS a real challenge to get even then. This was my top favorite SR in 2015 and I was unable to get one, despite standing in the early line on multiple days. So I have always followed him with interest! Nothing haunts me like the models I wasn't able to get despite being at the event where they were released. Luckily it doesn't happen too often, but this was definitely one whose popularity was (and still is) much much higher than the number produced! He was a mere $25 if you could get one!

There was also some big news over in Stone Horses land. Long time customizer Mona will be leaving the staff. This week the Best Offer models are a wonderful tribute to her style with Caroline Boydston doing the paint work on most of them. The Bunny is my absolute favorite in Caroline's signature dapple grey with Mona's stellar hair work, but the Andalusian is the money favorite, currently sitting at just over $6300 - definitely check them out on the Stone auctions page. However on the flip side Mel Miller will be joining the artist staff this summer! Her sculpting and paint work is renowned in the hobby community and it will be very exciting to see her as a regular at Stone! Big things to come later in the year I am certain!