Let's Talk Breyerfest SR Preferences

There is only about a week left to buy Breyerfest tickets that will include the ability to submit a Special Run preference list, for both the in person and online options. After June 4, any all access tickets purchased will come with wildcards instead of designated special runs and any online tickets will be randomly assigned.

Up until last year I was all in on wildcards. Maybe it's because I did it for so long and I'm resistant to change, but I really liked being able to make my selections on the fly during Breyerfest and so I always enjoyed the wildcard option although I can definitely agree that not having to do the line times is SO MUCH better.

Sometimes I just change my mind after seeing the options in person, but more often it is a case of me wanting to try to get the matte and the glossy of a run split, or a specific mane version, or maybe just a nicer example of my favorite model. Of course there is also the unknown of the surprise model - I might want to try to pull more variations of it or it might turn out to be something I don't care for (this is rare LOL). Throw in the possibility of variations or micro runs and all of the above goes out the window. Which special runs I want to get based on the chance at a particular small run variation could turn my entire preference list on it's head!

You could still get around all this for awhile because you could always trade your SR tickets with others who also changed their minds or weren't selected for their tops picks. Unfortunately now with digital tickets, there is no ability to trade tickets anymore either, so you really are locked in to your choices. This is why until this year I have always waited and chosen to have all wildcard tickets (plus one VIP with two guaranteed selections). The runs are all larges sizes these days and there was rarely a sell out beyond the number one most popular model, which I could select with the VIP.

Last year, however, that strategy totally backfired on me. I should have seen it coming in retrospect, but I failed to consider the effect of online tickets being able to select and purchase special runs. What that meant was that none of the models available to online ticket holders, other than the surprise, were available as wildcards to people there in person. Even worse for me, my two guaranteed models were also in person only models and were available as wildcards - so my plan to get my other favorites via wildcard failed. I was able to get more surprises and both tail versions of the rearing Andalusian, but I was definitely disappointed to not have a chance at the mare & foal set, the rainbow zebra pony, or even the Indian Pony! Lesson learned.

So what does that mean for this year? I know I personally won't be getting wildcards but I have also run the numbers and for anyone else attending in person this year wildcards do not look like a good choice. This year the special runs available online are also by far the most popular options so what will be left in the wildcard selection will also be the least popular and easiest to get secondhand options.

I've been following the online preference polls and I used the results from favorites surveys and ranked choice surveys to determine a relative sentiment rating for each model. Models that were chosen as first or second choice received a higher score and models that were chosen as last or second to last choice received a lower score.

Name	Description	Popularity Score	In Person Only
Hats Off to You	Appaloosa Old Timer	70
Seize the Day Surprise		66
Let The Good Times Roll	Appaloosa SJW	52
Good Times and Great Friends	Mustang Mare and Foal	29	X
Future Is Bright	Palomino Bandolero	9
To The Ties That Bind Us	Blue Silhouette Silver	-16
YOLO	Dapple Grey Brishen	-57	X
Get This Party Started	Black Pinto Croi	-57	X
Life's A Journey	Lassie Border Collie	-96	X

It's no surprise to see the Old Timer in first place, he has been the leader in all of the favorites polls I have seen. It's also not surprising to see the Collie in last place - many collectors just focus on horses and aren't as interested in the other animals, so he was the most often chosen as 9th favorite. I am more surprised to see the Croi and the Brishen on the lower end, but these surveys do lean towards collectors and not average fans and so they will probably be more popular in reality than they seem.

But it's very clear here that all the most popular models are also the ones available to online ticket holders. That's great news for virtual attendees! For in person ticket holders, I strongly recommend getting a ticket or tickets with special run selection before June 4th unless your top two choices are on the bottom half of the chart here, then there is no rush. When making your selections I would suggest ranking the models at the top of the chart higher on your preference list if you want a better shot at getting them. Many of them were probably already selected on VIP tickets and with so many allocated to virtual tickets it's going to be much harder to get those in person. Check out my earlier post on that topic.

As for me, I'm still torn about what to select. I can either try to get multiples of my favorites in case there are fun variations or I can try to spread it out so I can at least get one of each that I am hoping to get. I'm leaning towards option 2, spread out my selections. In 2020 I put Ash and the Surprise as the top two on all four of my tickets because I really wanted to make sure I got one... and I ended up getting those two on all my tickets! I regretted that decision and to this day I'm still looking for an Oak and a glossy Thorn! So I think in the long run I will be happier not getting duplicates.

With the prices up, I also still have a planned post on which models are likely to hold (or increase) their value, based on data from the past few years, if that is one of your considerations when making your selections.