Breyerfest Surprise Model Guesses

Continuing on with my theme of trying to figure out what rankings to put on my Special Run preference lists. It's always fun and nerve-wracking to try to guess what the surprise model might be!

There is no 100% pattern to follow, other than it not being a mold that's already another BF SR, but I've narrowed my list by the general trends. Previous surprise models have all been on molds that were relatively recently released - between 3 to 16 years old at the time of use, with an average age of 8.5 years. Half of them have been between 3-6 years and the other half spread across the wider 7-16 range. If that trend holds, this year's model would be on a mold released between 2009 and 2022, with a 50% chance of something from 2019-2022.

The vast majority of the time they have also not used a mold that is in current regular run production. I haven't checked them all, but Hamilton (Marc of Charm) and Smarty (Secretariat) did break this rule. I used that to eliminate all the molds released from 2009-2022 that is in current production or is already a SR this year EXCEPT I left in Idocus, because Snowman has been such a long term RR that I don't think that discounts him enough.

Another thing that has sometimes been the case, but admittedly not often enough to be a true trend, is that the mold was just discontinued from RR use the year prior. If I've done my calculations correctly this leads me to my current number one pick: Troubadour! He was released in 2020, discontinued last year as MorganQuest Native Sun, and has been a very popular mold for Breyer with 7 releases in 5 years, not including variations which would bring the total up to 12.

Other strong contenders on my list are: True North, Valegro, Wyatt, and Carrick. I'm also going to throw Fireheart in there, even though he is still a current Regular Run as Mojave, he could follow the Hamilton pattern of a very popular recent mold. Mojave is a couple years old now.

I am also leaving open the possibility of: Weather Girl, Idocus, the Moody Icelandic, the Shagya, the Andalusian Mare or Forever Saige.

Now... all that being said, this is the 75th anniversary celebration and if there was ever a year to break with tradition and use an iconic older mold, this would be it. In my opinion if they were to do this it would need to be something both iconic and popular to hold up as the surprise model. While it would be super fun and meta to have it be something like Sherman Morgan, I'm just not sure that would be popular enough outside of hardcore vintage collectors.

With the same general restrictions as the new molds, that narrows my list of top guesses to the Fighting Stallion, Huck Bey, Wintersong, Adios and Big Ben. The Fighting Stallion feels conspicuously absent from the special 75th models so far. It's true he was just used for the 70th anniversary but he is SUCH an icon that I would expect to see him featured somewhere prominently this year, so he gets my top place for the possibility of a vintage surprise. I would love something like the PAM too, but given her sometimes contentious history I don't think they would go that route.

The astute reader will be thinking - but hey wait, what about the Quarter Horse Gelding? There IS precedent for a vintage mold. I usually discount that in my guesses. It was the first year and it felt more like a one off. An experiment. A different time. There was a gap before they did a surprise again, so when I look at the stats I start with Ethereal in 2009 - however, you are totally right, and especially this year, you can't say they would never do a vintage mold, because they have!

And now for some really wild and crazy speculation. What if this year there is more than one mold? Every year on the surprise horse guessing threads you will get one or two people suggesting they might really surprise us and use more than one mold. I mean, what IF? This would be the year for a huge shakeup. Maybe instead of one mold with 4/5 colors they will do one color on 4/5 molds! I personally think this is crazy town and a bridge too far and they will always stick with the single mold strategy. However, if you want to think outside the box, that would be a surprising surprise!

What do you think it's going to be? Something expected or something crazy? Will there be 6 (or more??) colors again?

I should also take this time to note that I haven't been right about the surprise since Esprit in 2016 so there is also a good chance that I am well off the scent again. It's always fun to think about and exciting to see what it turns out to be. I am most "worried" about it being True North, Valegro, or Idocus - they are favorite congas of mine. And of course I put worried in quotes because I would also love it since they are favorite congas of mine. Adios, Big Ben or the PAM would also be a big love/hate choice for me. Best case for my wallet would be something like Saige or Wyatt that I don't collect. Most of the rest of the likely possibilities I would enjoy but I wouldn't need to get every one, just my favorite color or two.

Now having said that, since I have freed myself from conga completionism, if I actually look at my collection the reality is the color and pattern have been way more important than the mold in determining how many I get. Smarty, Latigo, and the Cleveland Bay are among my most favorite congas, but sadly I didn't actually like most of the surprise colors on them! Meanwhile last year with Emerson, who I like but don't specifically conga, I absolutely loved every color and I ended up getting them all! Even something like the Moody Andalusian, which I don't even collect, I ended up getting the two chalky surprise variations because they look cool and I love chalkies.

So maybe the reality is I shouldn't worry! True North and Valegro are/were still completionist congas for me, but even Valegro I gave up completeness last year because I really really do not like the lemur pattern on him. At all. I'm really not a fan of putting other wild animal patterns on horses so that whole series gives me the ick - but that's OK! Something for everyone. It has freed me from needing every Valegro in case he is the surprise this year and I don't like all the colors.

I am still scarred from the Flash year where I loved the mold and all the colors and didn't get a single one despite having multiple tickets. Couple that with the fact they were all rare and popular it was painful to have to acquire them on the secondary market. There hasn't actually been a year like that since and it has been 10 years since they were hard to get, either in person or secondhand. If anything was going to break the hobby I thought it would be Hamilton, but even he was easy to get all the variations in any finish at Breyerfest or afterwards.